What did the jumper say as he hurdled past the 10th floor?
"So far so good."
"The numbers speak for themselves. . . it is clear that disengagement has decreased terror" Former Shin Bet Chief Avi Dichter said yesterday as he praised Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's retreat at a press conference where he announced he was joining Sharon's Kadima Party.
Dichter went on to say that there may be more retreats (aka "unilateral withdrawals") out of "security considerations."
Shin Bet Chief Avi Dichter knew full well that one has to consider considerably more than a few months of "numbers" in order to get an indication if the retreat policy is panning out.
Sharon's team went into the retreat assuming that it would be possible to impose effective controls on the movement of people and goods between Gaza and the outside world. After the retreat they succumbed to American pressure and the Palestinians now enjoy the final say on who and what passes through the border.
The international observers are only window dressing. That's not speculation - its written in black and white in the agreement that the PA has final say on who and what goes through Rafah - and that arrangement is the model for the seaport and the airport.
Shin Bet Chief Avi Dichter knew how the Palestinians would exploit this.
Sharon's team went into the retreat confidently assuming that threats of a harsh unprecedented reaction to terror attacks emanating from within the Gaza Strip would serve to deter the Palestinians. But that threat has already been tested and proven to be just as hollow as the threats Israel made when the IDF retreated from Lebanon.
The vacuum Israel's retreat from the Gaza Strip created is being exploited today by all the Palestinian militias to prepare, train and arm for a round of conflict that could generate "numbers" of a magnitude Israel has yet to experience.
In the last weeks we have already seen evidence how well the Palestinians have advanced on their "learning curve" - successfully tunneling from the Gaza Strip into Israel.
Yes. Shin Bet Chief Avi Dichter knew full well that one has to consider considerably more than a few months of "numbers" in order to get an indication if the retreat policy is panning out.
But politician Avi Dichter apparently has more important things to concern himself with than the truth. Things like not offending the man who will decide Dichter's placement in the Kadima list or what cabinet post Dichter will get if Kadima's performance at the ballot box comes close to its performance in the recent polls.
What a shame that a man who devoted his life to Israel's security should squander his integrity for a shot at a ministerial portfolio.
Copyright by Dr. Aaron Lerner, www.imra.org.il
