The lesson of the Bar Lev Line in 1973 was that a nation dwarfed by its enemies geographically, in manpower, and armaments can't afford to fight wars of attrition. The latter involve allowing your enemies to call the shots...literally and figuratively. Israel was almost destroyed in the Yom Kippur War.
Israel's military excels at the offensive, lightning strike. It's enemies know this also. So they do what they do to push just so far, but no further. They expect that Israel will play by their rules, since it is always under pressure by those in the American State Department and elsewhere to not "over react."
Syria's main proxy in what it considers to be its Lebanese "province," Hizbullah, recently launched a major assault on Israeli positions and towns in the north. It appears that it was primarily designed to kidnap Israeli soldiers. Luckily, despite Israeli casualties, that attempt failed.
But there's that initial problem mentioned above again.
Merely sitting and waiting for murderous, rejectionist enemies to make their next move at their own convenience is asking for trouble. This is not the first time Israel has suffered this way.
While there have been promising developments in Lebanon lately--most notably Syria's at least partial departure--circumstances cannot stay the way that they are now indefinitely. Indeed, Damascus and its Iranian cohort continue to stoke the flames via Hizbullah, which is now in possession of tens of thousands of rockets and other high tech armaments courtesy of them.
On the positive side, there have been some signs lately that Lebanon's own military is more willing to assert itself on issues relating to containment of forces likely to stir up trouble.
But Hizbullah has a huge, home grown following in south Lebanon, and it can no longer use Israel's forced occupation of that area as its excuse to attack Jews since the latter have exited the area for some time now. Had there been a Lebanese government earlier that was willing and able to prevent the continuous attacks on Israel by Arafat's boys, there would have been no need for that earlier occupation in the first place.
Israel must make clear to all parties concerned that it will not permit the situation to deteriorate further. Right now it's worse than during the days which led to Israel's war to evict the PLO from Lebanon several decades ago.
Hizbullah has a more massive following, better arms, and determined, powerful allies with specific goals. This author's Syria...Seriously gets into this issue in detail, so it won't be repeated now.
So, the bottom line is that it's fast approaching the time for Israel to have to once again clean its neighbor's house.
For those who claim that it means that Israel will be meddling in another country's internal affairs--like the critics who accused Israel during its campaign against the PLO in Lebanon previously--the answer, of course, is that if you allow your territory to be used to launch aggression against your neighbor and continuously fail to do anything to prevent this from happening, then you best have no complaints when the victim acts to defend itself.
Targeted tit-for-tat helicopter and artillery retaliatory strikes only invite more problems later. They do nothing to solve the long term problem.
Not long ago, there was an outpouring of support in Lebanon against Syria and those who support it. True, there were also large pro-Syrian demonstrations. Israel can bolster the former via some renewed house cleaning as well.
So, here's the plan...
Israel has its "chat" with Lebanese officials. It has ways that this can be done via diplomatic channels.
It explains that this déjà vu scenario must fast come to an end and that Lebanon is now being forewarned and placed on notice that further aggression will be handled the way any other nation would to act to defend its own land and people.
For those who claim that this is just what Syria and Iran want--to heat up the north in order to deflect attention from their involvement in Iraq, the nukes, and such--my answer is that it is better to heat it up now than later when Hizbullah's buddies may very well indeed be nuclear.
Israel should then evacuate its northern towns as best as possible and launch a massive offensive against Hizbullah from air, sea, and land...taking out as many major positions as possible all at once a la the June '67 war.
As Israel has targeted Hamas and Islamic Jihad leaders, Hizbullah's should now meet their seventy-some virgins in Paradise as well...especially the ones with the big mouths. Another Israeli air visit to Syria--especially to Hizbullah's Sheikh Nasrallah--would also be nice.
No doubt, Hizbullah will retaliate with massive rocket launches and the like.
And these must be met exponentially with the full brunt of Israel's military power to crush them. The time for pussy footing around has long past. Indeed, Hizbullah believes it defeated Israel in Lebanon, leading it to withdraw.
While Israel was on Lebanese soil, Jews had misgivings about that war...so withdrew and cut their losses.
Hamas learned a lesson here as well.
It's a totally different ball game now.
Israel is being attacked by an enemy which, like Hamas, rejects its very right to exist. But, unlike how it has handled the latter, it must go after Hizbullah and its thousands of rockets with the same preemption which led it to take out powerful enemy air forces and armored brigades en masse in just six days four decades earlier.
If done properly, Hizbullah will be weakened tremendously. True, it will not be totally destroyed, but it must be left with the message that it can expect the same treatment if it starts playing the same game yet again.
There is already a clear division in Lebanon between those who support Syria and its proxies and those who don't.
Guess who wins out here?
If the Syrians make a move, Israel must make it very clear that it will be a move that Damascus will long regret. And huffing and puffing should not be the way this message is conveyed. Too much of that lately has led to Israel not being taken seriously. Israel says one thing then caves in to international (i.e. American) pressure to agree to one-sided concessions detrimental to its very existence.
Israel has nothing to lose that it won't later lose anyway if it doesn't take care of business now. And then the stakes will be even higher.
Hizbulllah rejectionists have long revealed their true hands. Indeed, they have been increasingly in contact with their Hamas and Islamic Jihad counterparts.
With Israel out of Lebanon, Hizbullah and other pro-Syrian Lebanese stooges cannot claim that they're merely acting to defend Lebanon's sovereignty when Israel is targeted. Their lame excuse about the disputed Sheba Farms area is baseless as well, as even a UN frequently hostile to Israel confirms that Israel indeed withdrew to the international border.
So, when Israel launches its already overdue war to end the Hizbullah terror (how long would America have waited after its citizens were repeatedly attacked from Canada or Mexico to react if the latter failed to act to stop this themselves?), the new enemies it will have made in the process will not be new at all...just the same ones it already has.
And while most will dare not say it, there are many in Lebanon who are waiting for Israel to do this very house cleaning for them.
Combined with the Syrian withdrawal (even if its agents are still present), this may pave the way to a real peace between Israel and its ancient Phoenician/modern Lebanese neighbors.
Some seventeen centuries before the Arab conquest of the native Semitic but non-Arab Phoenicians/Lebanese, the Hebrew Bible ( aka "Old Testament" ) records in detail how Solomon, King of Israel, requested King Hiram of Tyre to supply cedar wood and to build a temple and a palace in Jerusalem.
It is time for those days to return.
Copyright by Gerald A. Honigman
